- 2036
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- đ What Arthur Hayes is buying right now
đ What Arthur Hayes is buying right now
PLUS: the future of Web3 Gaming
GM everyone. This is 2036.
Today, I was going to treat you to a bunch of my favorite graphs on where we are in the cycle.
But then Arthur Hayes published a new (excellent) essay, so insteadâI decided to spare you the 8 minutes it takes to read it and give you the juicy details here (including what heâs buying).
Arthur believes that:
Fed uncertainty
US tax season
Bitcoin halving as a âsell the newsâ event
A slowdown in US Bitcoin ETF buying
⌠all led to the recent cleanse-out in crypto markets.
But hereâs the good news: liquidity is back â
Iâve shared this graph a few times but Iâll share it again:
liquidity đ = crypto đ

And Arthur believes weâre about to see a lot more of it.
Hereâs why:
1/ The Fed is reducing its rate of Quantitative Tightening (QT) đ¤
Since 2022, the Fed has engaged in quantitative tightening (QT) to reduce the size of its balance sheet, which ballooned after 2008 and COVID.
However, this week, the Fed announced it would lower its monthly reduction targets, which is a net positive for liquidity.
2/ The US Treasury keeps borrowing more than expected đ´
This will increase the yield on long-term US Treasury bonds, which the US government itself canât afford.
This means that eventually, the US treasury will be forced to keep interest rates low by buying bonds withâyou guessed itâfreshly printed money.
3/ All US banking deposits are now effectively insured by the government đĽ
Up until now, only deposits up to $250,000 were insured by the FDIC.
However, the failing Republic Bank was purchased by Fulton Bank on the condition that the FDIC give Fulton $667 million to cover all the non-insured deposits, too.
This effectively means that all $6.7 trillion in uninsured US banking deposits are now insured by the FDIC.
And because the FDIC doesnât have $6.7 trillion, this all but guarantees that money will be printed to pay for it.
You canât have a bank run in an election year, you know.
So thatâs Arthurâs thesis.
Does that mean itâs time to buy?
Arthur certainly thinks so.
Heâs loading up on Bitcoin, Ether, Solana, Pendle, WIF and DOGE.
He believes:
Bitcoin bottomed around $58,000
Bitcoin will range between $60,000 and $70,000 until August
There is a lot more liquidity coming
In his own words, you can safely 'buy in May and walk awayâ.
And he could be onto something.
If this cycle is like all others, weâre going much higher:
Drawdowns are just part of the game.
Six 5-10% drawdowns
Three 10-20% drawdowns
Two 20-30% drawdowns
One 30-40% drawdown
One 40-70% drawdown
yet it looks like weâre just getting started:

If youâre feeling frisky, you can read Arthurâs entire essay here.

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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.