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  • 👀 What Arthur Hayes is buying right now

👀 What Arthur Hayes is buying right now

PLUS: the future of Web3 Gaming

GM everyone. This is 2036.

Today, I was going to treat you to a bunch of my favorite graphs on where we are in the cycle.

But then Arthur Hayes published a new (excellent) essay, so instead—I decided to spare you the 8 minutes it takes to read it and give you the juicy details here (including what he’s buying).

Arthur believes that:

  • Fed uncertainty

  • US tax season

  • Bitcoin halving as a “sell the news” event

  • A slowdown in US Bitcoin ETF buying

… all led to the recent cleanse-out in crypto markets.

But here’s the good news: liquidity is back ⭐

I’ve shared this graph a few times but I’ll share it again:

liquidity 📈 = crypto 📈

And Arthur believes we’re about to see a lot more of it.

Here’s why:

1/ The Fed is reducing its rate of Quantitative Tightening (QT) 🤏

Since 2022, the Fed has engaged in quantitative tightening (QT) to reduce the size of its balance sheet, which ballooned after 2008 and COVID.

However, this week, the Fed announced it would lower its monthly reduction targets, which is a net positive for liquidity.

2/ The US Treasury keeps borrowing more than expected 💴

This will increase the yield on long-term US Treasury bonds, which the US government itself can’t afford.

This means that eventually, the US treasury will be forced to keep interest rates low by buying bonds with—you guessed it—freshly printed money.

3/ All US banking deposits are now effectively insured by the government 🏥

Up until now, only deposits up to $250,000 were insured by the FDIC.

However, the failing Republic Bank was purchased by Fulton Bank on the condition that the FDIC give Fulton $667 million to cover all the non-insured deposits, too.

This effectively means that all $6.7 trillion in uninsured US banking deposits are now insured by the FDIC.

And because the FDIC doesn’t have $6.7 trillion, this all but guarantees that money will be printed to pay for it.

You can’t have a bank run in an election year, you know.

So that’s Arthur’s thesis. 

Does that mean it’s time to buy?

Arthur certainly thinks so.

He’s loading up on Bitcoin, Ether, Solana, Pendle, WIF and DOGE.

He believes:

  • Bitcoin bottomed around $58,000

  • Bitcoin will range between $60,000 and $70,000 until August

  • There is a lot more liquidity coming

In his own words, you can safely 'buy in May and walk away’.

And he could be onto something.

If this cycle is like all others, we’re going much higher:

Drawdowns are just part of the game.

  • Six 5-10% drawdowns

  • Three 10-20% drawdowns

  • Two 20-30% drawdowns

  • One 30-40% drawdown

  • One 40-70% drawdown

yet it looks like we’re just getting started:

If you’re feeling frisky, you can read Arthur’s entire essay here.

DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.