👀 Well well well...

GM everyone. This is 2036.

Two big updates.

1/ Our Biden bet is playing out 👴🏻

Last week, I published a newsletter with a wild bet.

The thesis was simple:

• The Biden campaign agreed to the debate with Trump early in the election cycle to give them time to find a new candidate in case Biden flops the debate

• If that happens, the prediction markets think possible replacement candidates could be Gavin Newsom and Michelle Obama

• In that case, the tokens of both potential candidates - $NOOSUM and $OBEMA - would soar

Turns out, that’s exactly what happened.

It seems even the most ardent Democrats believe yesterday was a total shitshow for Biden.

So naturally, this happened…

Oh-ho.

So, how did our bet turn out?

So far, so good.

After the debate:

• $NOOSUM soared +450%

• $OBEMA increased +57%

Not a bad start.

If you took profits, congratulations 👏

But if we’re swinging for the fences, I’ll argue that our bets on $NOOSUM and $OBEMA aren’t over yet.

Many Democrats only woke up to the possibility of replacing Biden… last night.

They have 40 days to find a new candidate. So, these tokens will likely be highly volatile as the situation evolves.

Now— the prediction markets think Trump will win in a landslide against Biden.

But what if the Democrats pick someone that can put up a fight? 🥊

Biden could have lost the Democratic nomination, but the Democrats could still win the election with a new candidate.

If Michelle Obama or Gavin Newsom are rumored, $NOOSUM and $OBEMA probably still have room to run.

But we could also get some new candidates - like Whitmer, Wes Moore, or others - with their own tokens, too.

Of course, if you think Trump will win, you could take a different route and just buy $TRUMP on Uniswap (it trades on Ethereum).

Trump is the more pro-candidate, and if he gets elected— it’ll be good for all our bags.

(He might also clean up the SEC and make them drop their charges against Coinbase… which would be great for $COIN, but that’s a story for another newsletter…)

And if Biden wins the Democratic nomination, $NOOSUM and $OBEMA will probably go nowhere.

Remember, this is purely a fun gamble while we wait for the rest of our coins to go up. If you participate, do it with a TINY % of your portfolio.

And here’s what Elon had to say about it…

2/ Solana is getting an ETF 🏦

Yesterday, VanEck, a financial institution with $90 billion of assets under management, filed for a Solana ETF.

Naturally, the entire Solana ecosystem jumped on the news.

Now - VanEck is relatively small… but what happens when Blackrock or Fidelity file for the same?

It’ll fundamentally change the economics of the SOL trade for the better.

No one expected this would happen this year. 

But when it gets approved, institutional investors will have the choice between:

• Bitcoin at $1.2 Trillion market cap

• ETH at $400 billion market cap

• SOL at $65 billion market cap

i.e. SOL just became the better risk-adjusted bet for institutional money.

Already now, the Grayscale Solana Trust is pricing in Solana at over $1,000.

It’s just a matter of time before this materializes in the rest of the market.

Most Solana memecoins are -50% or more from their highs.

So, if you haven’t had a chance to buy yet, I’d argue that now is one of the best opportunities the market has seen in many months.

In the last two days, WIF had as much trading volume as DOGE and SHIB combined… but with 14X less market cap.

I expect a repricing higher soon.

1/ Politifi tokens are all over the place

2/ Prediction markets think there’s a 39% chance Biden drops out of the race

3/ Trump’s odds of victory surge to 67%

DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.