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  • 📝 The (non)-consensus thesis

📝 The (non)-consensus thesis

PLUS: which coin would you choose?

GM everyone. This is 2036.

Last week, I came across a series of posts that describe a thesis I think everyone should understand.

I’ll link them at the bottom of this newsletter.

Here’s the TLDR:

1/ Bitcoin is the hardest asset on Earth 🧈

Your goal should be to accumulate as much of it as possible. During bull markets, the best way to do this is to swap bitcoin for altcoins that will outperform it for a while (and then swap back).

2/ In the past, almost all altcoins outperformed Bitcoin…🚀

… but that might not be the case anymore 🚫

The Bitcoin ETFs mean Bitcoin is being accumulated at much higher rates than any other time before. Bitcoin might not lag all altcoins - only some.

3/ This means that it is simultaneously more important than ever to pick good altcoins that will outperform BTC but also more difficult to do so because:

  • the sheer number of altcoins has exploded - which dilutes attention across more altcoins

  • the technology has become increasingly complex for the average person to understand (restaking, data availability, RWAs, L2s, etc.)

There’s now a literal sea (red ocean) of altcoins that all seem similarly complex in the mind of the average investor.

4/ This means that crypto is now a game of attention 👀

In 2021 - when the tech was much simpler than today - the average retail investor already pumped Shiba Inu (SHIB) to a $40 billion valuation.

Today, there are hundreds more serious coins vying for attention.

But most of these are likely to be ignored. ‘Serious tech’ is no longer a qualifier for coin-go-up.

5/ Imagine you could only pick 1 altcoin from this list with the following condition: millions of people will be presented with the same choice 👥

If you don’t pick the #1 most picked coin, you lose.

This means you must pick not what you want but what you think other people will want.

Which one would you choose?

Most people would pick the obvious standout: the dog wif hat (WIF).

But you could replace the dog wif hat with any other famous meme - the result would be the same.

This simple exercise, however, is important and explains why memecoins:

  • have already been the highest-performing sector among crypto natives (for whom the technology of most other altcoins is already too complicated)

  • will continue to do even better when the average retail investor gets involved

All investments carry the opportunity cost of all the other investments you’re missing out on while deploying your capital.

And so far, memecoins are siphoning the most attention out of any.

They’re senseless but easy to understand. You don’t need a PhD in computer science to get it (in fact, most CS PhDs don’t get it)

If you’re still not fully convinced memecoins make sense, you can read the original posts here.

P.S: This is a classic example of game theory. If you want the best primer I’ve ever come across on game theory, watch this.

P.S.S: Gaming is another narrative that’s easy to understand for retail investors. I’ll be announcing some more early-stage gaming opportunities soon. Check below to receive them 👇

DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.