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🕌 Some thoughts from Dubai

PLUS: The Bitcoin halving

GM everyone. This is 2036.

I just spent the week in Dubai at one of the world’s largest crypto conferences - Token2049.

It was an eventful week:

  • Dubai was completely flooded

  • There was a regional conflict threatening to blow up

  • The Fed tanked risk assets by making clear it would keep rates high if needed

… but nonetheless, the conference was full of nuggets that I thought I’d share with you.

From keynote speakers, panels, and talking to people all over, here are some of the things that really stood out…

1/ Memecoins are this cycle’s biggest theme 🐶🐸

Few people predicted this, and not everybody is happy with it—notably VCs who think we should focus more on technology.

But memecoins have been the clear winner of this crypto cycle so far - both in mindshare and returns.

Just this year, memecoins have outperformed every other crypto category.

Memecoins are no longer a temporary narrative.

DOGE has been around for 10+ years and even in a bear market, was a $10B coin.

Instead, memecoins are more like NFTs in the last cycle - a fundamental category of their own that’s exploding.

2/ WIF will be the category winner this cycle 🎩

Every meme discussion always referred back to the now-strongest meme in crypto: WIF.

WIF at a $40 billion valuation - like SHIB in the previous cycle - would surprise nobody at this point. That would put the price of WIF at $40 (more than 10X from here)

At this point, WIF is a blue-chip memecoin despite its relatively low market cap compared to DOGE or SHIB.

It'll keep accruing the attention of both:

  • crypto natives who know it's the best meme

  • outsiders who want to buy the new category winner after Doge (which is highly dependent on Elon)

But that doesn't mean you have to go all in on WIF.

Instead…

3/ A clever way to invest in a crypto ecosystem is simply to buy 🌐:

  • The chain

  • The DEX

  • The biggest meme

This gives you more upside than just holding the chain token without much of the volatility of newer coins on the chain.

For example, if you want leveraged exposure to Solana, instead of just holding SOL, you could hold:

… and do the same for every chain.

4/ A lot of smart people are still very bullish on crypto gaming 🎮

I had long chats with the event's biggest sponsors. The main theme that kept coming back besides memecoins was crypto gaming.

Crypto gaming is an easy narrative that appeals to a wide range of non-crypto-native investors. These investors usually only arrive once the bull market is in full steam, many months after a new Bitcoin all-time high.

That’s why crypto gaming is a late-stage narrative that’s yet to really take off. But when it does, it will probably be explosive.

And on that note…

5/ You probably aren't bullish enough 📈

Any sitting US president has a 77% chance of getting re-elected. But if the economy is in a recession, that number falls to 32%.

Joe Biden knows this, so he’ll probably come up with new ways of stimulating the economy. This means money printing and asset inflation - which is good for crypto.

As long as the underlying issues (e.g. huge budget deficits) aren’t resolved, governments will eventually need to keep printing more money to pay interest on the existing debt and stimulate the economy.

This is far from over - so think bigger.

6/ The Bitcoin halving was successful 🌓

The Bitcoin halving took place on Saturday. Nothing out of the ordinary happened, but as my mother says when I forget to call her, no news is good news.

Crypto tends to go parabolic in the 6-18 months following a halving.

So fasten your seatbelt.

**

I have a bunch of things to unpack this week:

  • Runes went live with the Bitcoin halving.

  • One of the first major deals of 2036: Private Investor is being distributed in early May. Private investors will receive an email with details soon.

I’m traveling for another week and will try my best to get another email to you this week.

If not - enjoy the calm before the storm.

DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.