👀 One new sector I'm looking at

GM everyone. This is 2036.

Bullish sentiment is coming back 🐂

And there’s 3 good reasons for it…

1/ Today, the Fed could speak positively to markets 📈

At a big meeting for central bankers today, all eyes are on Jerome Powell’s outlook on growth, inflation, and rate cuts.

Inflation fears are being traded for fear of slow growth and bad employment numbers - which strengthens the case for more rate cuts.

An unexpectedly market-friendly Powell could make prices pop.

2/ Kamala’s honeymoon seems to be fading 📉

Trump is back to being #1 in the prediction markets.

This could be on the back of rumors that Kamala would roll out a:

• 44% tax on capital gains

• 25% tax on unrealized capital gains for high net-worth individuals (ouch 😬)

… and appoint anti-crypto SEC chairman Gary Gensler as treasury secretary.

No bueno for crypto.

Crypto likes Trump, and if RFK endorses Trump later today— as some polls indicate— crypto could get yet another boost.

Speaking of polls, my wife’s been after me for writing this newsletter for free for nearly 2 years.

I want to keep it free, so I agreed to have Polymarket—the world’s largest prediction market, which I check daily—sponsor today’s newsletter.

As you probably know, I use Polymarket for trade ideas most people aren’t paying attention to (remember our Biden bet that returned nearly 20X?).

Trump’s odds in the election play a big role in crypto right now… so for some under-the-radar trade ideas, check out Polymarket:

Don’t trust the polls, trust the markets.

• The World's largest prediction market

• Trade politics, news, culture, and tech

• Get live, accurate, and unbiased election forecasts

See the latest odds

3/ Prices are starting to break out 💥

Finally, after months of chopping sideways, price charts show signs of life.

If BTC can successfully break above $62,000 - it should give us room to breathe.

So, the question remains: has our thesis changed?

And for once, I’d argue yes.

There's a corner of crypto I did not expect to show strength but that seems to be coming back to life: DeFi.

DeFi is everything banks do today (lending, borrowing, etc.) that we can also do on-chain.

DeFi was the big revolution of the 2020 cycle. And outside stablecoins, DeFi is arguably the application in crypto with the strongest product-market-fit.

But since the beginning of the bull market, DeFi coins have massively underperformed:

While Solana shot up 20X in 2023, many DeFi coins were essentially flat.

But the tides seem to be turning.

So what's going on?

AAVE, the biggest DeFi protocol by a long margin, is catching a bid.

It generates 8 figures a year in revenue from users and will start engaging in token buybacks with some of that revenue.

This will create consistent demand for the AAVE token… which is one reason it’s up +44% in the last month.

And as investors feel jaded by memes going nowhere, some are turning to projects with solid fundamentals and profits like AAVE.

Now, DeFi isn't limited to just AAVE, but if you wanted exposure, that’s probably where it would make sense to start.

On Solana, Kamino Finance ($KMNO) is the closest thing you’ll find to AAVE.

You could get relatively broad exposure to DeFi by just owning these two tokens.

So, if you’re looking for:

• less volatile assets

• that could have bottomed

• and have real, practical use cases…

… then it makes sense to put DeFi on your radar.

DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.