🥂 It happened...

GM everyone. This is 2036.

It happened. The moment we’ve all been waiting for.

Yesterday, our Biden bet paid off.

For those who are new, here’s the thesis from our wild bet published last month (and updated here):

• The Biden campaign agreed to the debate with Trump early in the election cycle to give them time to find a new candidate in case Biden flops the debate

• If that were to happen, the memecoins of presidential candidates who could replace Biden would soar in value.

And that’s exactly what happened.

In the immediate aftermath of Biden’s announcement, coins of democratic hopefuls pumped hard—$OBEMA, $NOOSUM, $KAMA, etc.

At the same time, the rest of crypto crashed.

The Democrats could now pick a candidate with a chance of beating Trump. Someone new, young, smart, charismatic.

That would be negative for crypto because Democrats don’t like our magic internet money.

Luckily for crypto, however, 20 min later, Joe Biden officially endorsed Kamala Harris.

Two things immediately happened:

• $KAMA soared +260%

• The rest of crypto recovered all its losses (Bitcoin even reached a new 6-week high of $68,000)

Why? Because the market thinks Kamala Harris has:

• the charisma of a chickpea

• a slim chance of beating Donald Trump

Now - things can still change from here.

Kamala could not be the nominee. Last night, Barack Obama said that he wants a convention to select a new nominee (his wife… $OBEMA?).

And Barack Obama is a heavyweight in the Democratic party.

But from a financial standpoint, the risk-reward of betting on that outcome doesn’t make sense to me.

The $KAMA token is up nearly 20X in the last month.

But even if Kamala officially wins the nomination, I don't expect the $KAMA token to pump enough to warrant investing.

There are better returns elsewhere.

Despite Biden’s media attention, Biden’s token ($BODEN) has been going straight down for months. This tells us these political tokens trade less on attention and more on straight winning odds.

I expect Kamala to lose and her token to go the same way.

So, what can we learn from this?

Biden’s campaign chair was on TV yesterday morning to say Biden will 100% stay in the race.

A few hours later, he dropped out.

That’s why it makes sense to pay attention to markets - not talking heads on TV.

Prediction markets priced in a 10% chance Biden would drop out before the first debate even took place.. and that probability was our opportunity.

If you missed this one, there’ll be many more opportunities like it as the bull market intensifies.

For example, yesterday, Popcat became the first cat coin to reach $1 billion market cap.

And while I was sleeping, Elon Musk changed his profile picture to blue laser eyes with a dark background - a picture from the memecoin community Dark MAGA.

You had to find the post about it, originally in Mandarin (thank you, Twitter translate)… but the coin pumped 100X in 4 hours.

Point is: you can’t catch them all, Ash.

⚡

I’ll be back with more soon.

1/ Bitcoin briefly tops $68K as bitcoin bulls rejoice in Biden’s dropout

2/ Popcat becomes the first cat coin to a $1 billion

3/ The Trump Effect brings thousands of new holders to MAGA memecoin

and these two videos are pretty brilliant…:

DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.