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đź‘€ Is it time to buy crypto stocks?
PLUS: the ETH ETF
GM everyone. This is 2036.
It’s been another busy week:
The NASDAQ had its worst 1-day drop in 2 years - dragging everything down with it
The ETH ETF launched
My son started crawling
My freedom is finally gone now that my 9-month-old can chase me anywhere.
More importantly, ETH has become available to millions of investors in their regular brokerage accounts.
So why isn't the price of ETH going up?
Because just like with the Bitcoin ETF— there are billions of $ of ETH locked in Grayscale’s Ether fund, ETHE, which for years traded at a discount but can finally sell at fair value.
I talked a lot about ETHE in 2023 - and capitalizing on that discount was one of our best trades.
Over the next two weeks, however, I expect we’ll see a lot of selling out of ETHE - which has the highest fees of all the new ETH ETFs.
This has already begun.
While all the ETFs are getting inflows, investors have already sold over $1 billion of ETHE, which could temporarily dampen ETH's performance.
The good news is that this is exactly what happened with Grayscale’s Bitcoin Fund (GBTC), which led to a wave of selling in the first few weeks after the Bitcoin ETF.
Ultimately, however, once the selling was resolved, Bitcoin resumed its upward trend.
Now, there are two caveats to this:
If the market rips hard in the next few weeks, ETH will probably do well regardless of ETHE
I expect the ETHE situation to be temporary. Once the ETHE selling is over, I expect ETH to catch a bid from the ETFs and resume its upward trend.
Does that mean it’ll outperform SOL?
No one knows, but I don’t personally think so.
Being on-chain in the Solana ecosystem has proven the way to outperform repeatedly in this cycle.
With that said, if you simply want to invest from your brokerage account, you could consider a couple of other options, too.
Last year, I talked about Bitcoin miners (RIOT, CLSK) and Coinbase stock (COIN).
Although Bitcoin miners face their unique set of temporary issues, I still think both will do very well this cycle as leveraged exposure to crypto.
But there's another company that's only 6% of Coinbase’s market cap that I think is worth paying attention to: Galaxy Digital Holdings.
Galaxy Digital is a crypto trading and investment firm run by Mike Novogratz.
Mike is a quintessential crypto OG. He was one of the louder voices during the 2018 cycle and, in the 2021 cycle, tattooed $LUNA on his shoulder (don’t ask him how that went).
I like Mike. But more importantly, Galaxy Digital is currently trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange and is fighting to get listed in New York instead.
I think that will eventually happen— maybe sooner than most of us expect.
When it does, Galaxy Digital will likely see a surge in both:
trading volume
momentum
and valuation
… meaning it’s probably very undervalued relative to its peers right now.
That arbitrage is our opportunity.
Alternatively, the trading platform Robinhood (HOOD) recently purchased a crypto exchange called Bitstamp to further integrate crypto. In a crazy bull market, I wouldn't be surprised if the rising crypto tide lifted all boats—including HOOD.
So, if you want to invest from the comfort of your brokerage account without going on-chain, I think these two options are worth looking at.
DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.