• 2036
  • Posts
  • šŸ’„ I'm changing things up

šŸ’„ I'm changing things up

PLUS: 3 charts I'm watching

GM everyone. This is 2036. We scroll for gems all day so you donā€™t have to.

Today, weā€™re going to do things a little differently than other Fridays.

Hereā€™s why: weā€™re at the beginning of the ā€œcrazyā€ stage of the bull market.

Source: TheDeFiEdge

This means that over the next couple of months, youā€™re more likely than ever to feel:

  • greed

  • FOMO

  • panic

ā€¦ and as you can imagine, these are all no bueno for our investment results.

Your goal now is to stick to your plan until the market gets frothy and then take profits.

To do this, you need to preserve your mental clarity & sanity at all costs.

We all have different ways of doing this.

Personally, Iā€™m changing my focus by drastically reducing šŸ“‰ my exposure to:

  • Twitter

  • podcasts

  • blogs/newsletters

  • other peopleā€™s ideas

  • short-term price movements

ā€¦and any other things that could throw me off my game, lead me to over-trade, get fearful, or be too greedy.

Instead, Iā€™ll rotate most of that focus onto:

1/ Investing in private crypto gaming deals (alongside members of 2036: Private Investor) šŸŽ®

The window of opportunity for getting deals at great valuations will soon close as the market takes off.

If you want to join before itā€™s too late - join us here (itā€™s free).

2/ Spending time on health & family šŸ„ā€ā™‚ļø

Iā€™ve found that to:

  • get your mind off of price charts

  • avoid fear and greed

  • keep your mental health intact, and stop staring at the screen too much

ā€¦thereā€™s nothing better than physically moving your body.

During the bear market in 2022, I ran an Ironman and climbed Mt. Everest.

Now, Iā€™m 3 days into P90X, and I can hardly move already. I love it.

If I donā€™t have my physical and mental health, I canā€™t take care of my family.

And my 20-pound, 4-month-old son isnā€™t going to rock himself to sleep yet.

3/ Monitoring the general market sentiment šŸ‘€

Short-term prices have a way of getting under your skin.

But multi-month trends allow you to see the bigger picture. They help you understand:

  • whether the market is over-extended

  • when itā€™s time to take profits

ā€¦ and with where we are going, weā€™ll need objective signals to stay level-headed and rational, away from the noise.

Iā€™ve talked about the Coinbase appā€™s ranking in the US app store as one of those indicators.

But here are some other things Iā€™ll be looking at (h/t thedefiedge)ā€¦

a/ Youtube views šŸŽ¬

When the average investor wants to learn about crypto, they go on Youtube.

Weā€™re still far from it - but when video views hit peaks again, itā€™ll probably be time to de-risk partially.

b/ Crypto exchange volume šŸ’±

This one is a classic, similar to Coinbaseā€™s ranking in the app store.

Although weā€™re nowhere near the peak yet, these numbers have already picked up meaningfully and will likely continue to do so.

c/ Bitcoinā€™s MVRV Z-score šŸ“ˆ

The MVRV Z-score is simply a measure of how overvalued Bitcoin is relative to its historical performance.

From the looks of it, weā€™re a little less than halfway through peak euphoria and danger (the red zone)ā€”and this can accelerate fast.

(you can browse through all the data yourself here and here)

While I watch these stats, I probably wonā€™t do much trading at all.

My main theses for this bull market have been established: AI, Gaming & Solana (especially memecoins).

I will purposely try not to chase too many other narratives because the only way to win in crypto is to bet with size and conviction.

Thatā€™s why you wonā€™t see as many tweets and resources from me in the Friday newsletter anymore.

Instead, Iā€™ll be updating you more on where we are in the cycle.

You should be prepared to resist euphoria at all times and seize the opportunity when it presents itself.

On that note, Iā€™ll leave you with some wisdom from Charlie Munger:

ā€œBig opportunities in life have to be seized. We donā€™t do very many things, but when we get the chance to do something right and big, weā€™ve gotta do it.

And even to do it on a small scale is just as big a mistake almost as not doing it at all. I mean, youā€™ve really got to grab it when they come.

Several times, I had 75% of my net worth in one situation. I bet you, you will see things thatā€¦ it would be a mistake not to have half your net worth in.ā€

Charlie Munger