- 2036
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- š„ I'm changing things up
š„ I'm changing things up
PLUS: 3 charts I'm watching
GM everyone. This is 2036. We scroll for gems all day so you donāt have to.
Today, weāre going to do things a little differently than other Fridays.
Hereās why: weāre at the beginning of the ācrazyā stage of the bull market.
This means that over the next couple of months, youāre more likely than ever to feel:
greed
FOMO
panic
ā¦ and as you can imagine, these are all no bueno for our investment results.
Your goal now is to stick to your plan until the market gets frothy and then take profits.
To do this, you need to preserve your mental clarity & sanity at all costs.
We all have different ways of doing this.
Personally, Iām changing my focus by drastically reducing š my exposure to:
Twitter
podcasts
blogs/newsletters
other peopleās ideas
short-term price movements
ā¦and any other things that could throw me off my game, lead me to over-trade, get fearful, or be too greedy.
Instead, Iāll rotate most of that focus onto:
1/ Investing in private crypto gaming deals (alongside members of 2036: Private Investor) š®
The window of opportunity for getting deals at great valuations will soon close as the market takes off.
If you want to join before itās too late - join us here (itās free).
2/ Spending time on health & family šāāļø
Iāve found that to:
get your mind off of price charts
avoid fear and greed
keep your mental health intact, and stop staring at the screen too much
ā¦thereās nothing better than physically moving your body.
During the bear market in 2022, I ran an Ironman and climbed Mt. Everest.
Now, Iām 3 days into P90X, and I can hardly move already. I love it.
If I donāt have my physical and mental health, I canāt take care of my family.
And my 20-pound, 4-month-old son isnāt going to rock himself to sleep yet.
3/ Monitoring the general market sentiment š
Short-term prices have a way of getting under your skin.
But multi-month trends allow you to see the bigger picture. They help you understand:
whether the market is over-extended
when itās time to take profits
ā¦ and with where we are going, weāll need objective signals to stay level-headed and rational, away from the noise.
Iāve talked about the Coinbase appās ranking in the US app store as one of those indicators.
But here are some other things Iāll be looking at (h/t thedefiedge)ā¦
a/ Youtube views š¬
When the average investor wants to learn about crypto, they go on Youtube.
Weāre still far from it - but when video views hit peaks again, itāll probably be time to de-risk partially.
b/ Crypto exchange volume š±
This one is a classic, similar to Coinbaseās ranking in the app store.
Although weāre nowhere near the peak yet, these numbers have already picked up meaningfully and will likely continue to do so.
c/ Bitcoinās MVRV Z-score š
The MVRV Z-score is simply a measure of how overvalued Bitcoin is relative to its historical performance.
From the looks of it, weāre a little less than halfway through peak euphoria and danger (the red zone)āand this can accelerate fast.
While I watch these stats, I probably wonāt do much trading at all.
My main theses for this bull market have been established: AI, Gaming & Solana (especially memecoins).
I will purposely try not to chase too many other narratives because the only way to win in crypto is to bet with size and conviction.
Thatās why you wonāt see as many tweets and resources from me in the Friday newsletter anymore.
Instead, Iāll be updating you more on where we are in the cycle.
You should be prepared to resist euphoria at all times and seize the opportunity when it presents itself.
On that note, Iāll leave you with some wisdom from Charlie Munger:
āBig opportunities in life have to be seized. We donāt do very many things, but when we get the chance to do something right and big, weāve gotta do it.
And even to do it on a small scale is just as big a mistake almost as not doing it at all. I mean, youāve really got to grab it when they come.
Several times, I had 75% of my net worth in one situation. I bet you, you will see things thatā¦ it would be a mistake not to have half your net worth in.ā
šÆ Want to invest in early-stage crypto opportunities before everyone else?