- 2036
- Posts
- 👀 Here's who I'm copying right now...
GM everyone. This is 2036.
We’re in the worst part of the cycle.
Prices are going nowhere, and investors are losing hope altseason will ever arrive.
That’s “the boring zone”— and it happens in every single cycle.
It doesn’t help that, since March, institutions and governments have sold $13 billion worth of bitcoin, compared to just $5 billion worth of new inflows into the ETFs.
So when will this misery end?
Let’s review…
In 2012, it took bitcoin 92 days to break its previous all-time high after the halving.
In 2016, it took 291 days.
In 2020, 216 days.
Today, we’re 122 days into the post-halving environment. I believe we’ll get to all-time highs much faster this cycle, mostly due to the Bitcoin ETFs.
But even if I’m wrong—
we will almost certainly get another Bitcoin all-time high within the next ∼150 days
after the new all-time high, select altcoins will outperform Bitcoin
when that happens, you don’t want to be left behind
This means that if you've already allocated to crypto, you probably want to be like this guy right now:
Nevada’s state pension fund is entirely invested in index funds. And it’s managed by ONE GUY.
His most important daily decision is having a BLT or tuna sandwich for lunch.
Check this out:
“His daily trading strategy: do as little as possible, usually nothing.”
“The Nevada system’s stocks and bonds are all in low-cost funds that mimic indexes. Mr. Edmundson may make one change to the portfolio a year.”
“Will the 2016 elections affect his portfolio? “No.” Oil prices? “No.” He follows the Fed, but “there’s a difference between watching and acting.”
I love this guy.
Compare him to Ontario’s Teacher Pension Plan, which has 1,300 employees and still underperforms the index.
So what’s the takeaway here? That simplicity usually wins in investing.
Remember, the best investment decision of the last decade was to buy Bitcoin and go on vacation.
The same is true today.
Once you own crypto, your biggest risk is panic-selling based on the news of the day - or months of bad price action (like now).
If you feel the sting of price volatility too much, go back and rebuild your conviction.
And if you’re purely in crypto for the returns, here’s the only chart you need to build conviction:
Then, do nothing.
If you have cash available— deploy it on dips.
If you don’t— take a seat back and enjoy the summer.
I’ll leave you with my favorite quote by Naval Ravikant, a prominent angel and crypto investor:
“Focus on the long term. Pick things you don't mind holding through booms and busts because you believe in their fundamental value.
Just take a longer viewpoint and you can sleep better at night. Stress less, hold for longer, and you'll make clearer decisions.
The richest man in the world who's an investor is Warren Buffet. He makes one investing decision a year and probably sells once every few years, so that's the model to emulate.
Have the judgment, spend the time to research where the fundamental value is, and then make your bets with deep conviction.
Traders, by definition, are people who don't have conviction in the underlying asset. Their conviction is a short-term one in market movement.
It's very hard to have conviction about short-term things by definition.
It's much easier to predict the long term than to pick the short term. It just requires patience. The longer term you look, the better your judgment gets.
Most people just don't have the patience because they want to get rich quickly.”
DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.